Suburban Races by the Numbers

Henrietta

Jack Moore was elected Henrietta Town Supervisor in 2013, replacing incumbent Republican Michael Yudelson. This year, he is challenged by Democrat Steven Schultz, and Jeffrey Kueppers, a Democrat running on the Bright Future line.

Moore has faced a slew of complaints alleging racist, sexist, and homophobic comments. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission found the complaints were credible.

Sadly, we don’t know if that will be enough to sway voters. Let’s look at party enrollment and voters patterns.

There are 9,035 registered Democrats, 7,257 Republicans, 5,753 voters not enrolled in any party, and 1,810 voters enrolled in a third party.

Only 38 percent of all voters cast a ballot in November 2015, the last supervisor election. That race was between Moore and Michael Yudelson, who ran as a Democrat.

Democrats had much lower turnout in 2015 than Republicans, 37 percent to 49 percent. Democrats have 1,800 more registered voters than Republicans, but Republicans cast 274 more votes. Moore won re-election by 637 votes.

Schultz can only win through one or more of these paths:

• Improved turnout from Democrats, which means getting people who don’t normally vote in off-years to the polls.
• Poor turnout from Republicans
• Republicans and Independents voting against Moore

Henrietta's 5,900 millennial voters could easily swing the election to Schultz – if they come out and vote. Young voters are most likely to reject Moore. Only 12.3% of Millennials voted in 2015. If a few hundred more of them came out, Schultz could win.